Saturday Night Genealogy Fun - Are Your Ancestors Missing in the Census?

 From Randy (my cousin) over at Genea-Musings:

it's Saturday Night - 

time for more Genealogy Fun!!!

Your mission, should you decide to accept it, is to:

1)  Which of your ancestors or relatives have you NOT found in the Census records and what have you done or are doing or are planning to do to try to find that person?  Can AI help?

2)  Identify one or more of your ancestors that are inexplicably missing from one or more census collections. Whey do you think they were not enumerated?

3) Please share!

(Thank you to Marian B. Wood for this SNGF idea.)

Here's mine:

    My maternal grandparents, Charles Morgan Tapley (1907-1973) and Ethel Irene Ranney Tapley (1913-1973) are not to be found on the 1940 census.  I did not even realize this until I started preparing for this blog post. 

    They were married in December 1939 and were definitely living in California.  That is where they met, married, and raised their children. According to the California Index to Register of Voters in Los Angeles, they were both living at 15749 Vintage Street, Los Angeles, which is located in the San Fernando Valley and is now considered to be North Hills.  According to the same source, they lived at the same address in 1942 and 1944.  My mother was born in September of 1942 and knows they spent the first few years of her life in that house.  Mom and I drove by this house when we were in Los Angeles in 2010 so we recognize it when we see photos of it.

    However, as I was researching this post, I came across information that the house was not constructed until 1943.  Before then, the area was farmland and empty lots which were not developed until the mid-1940s.  Mom doesn't know for sure that her father built that house and doesn't know the story surrounding the property.  

    So where in the world were they?  I tried to search Ancestry but neither one of them came up on the 1940 census, even with alternate spellings.  I'm sorry, but there were 1.5 million people living in Los Angeles that year.  I am not up to going through every page of the Los Angeles 1940 census.  I even tried to go through the list of enumeration districts but it was a lengthy list.

    I turned to Google Gemini (AI) and asked them this:  

"My maternal grandparents, Charles Morgan Tapley and Ethel Tapley were not found in the 1940 census for Los Angeles, Los Angels, California, where they lived at 15749 Vintage Street, supposedly.. Can you give me any insight as to how or why that would have happened along with any research strategies I could use to find them? I'm very confused now since the California Voter Registration for 1940 has them listed at that address, but the house there was not built until 1943."

    This was Gemini's reply:

"Discovering a mismatch between a voter registration record and a census enumeration—compounded by a physical house not yet being built—is a common and frustrating wall to hit in genealogical research.

Why This Discrepancy Happens

Voter Registration vs. Actual Residence (Intent vs. Reality):

Voter registration lists from this era are frequently compiled via canvassing, party registration drives, or declarations of intent. It was common for people to register to vote using a mailing address, a plot of land they owned, a planned future home site, or a family member's address before a physical structure was actually erected on the property. If they purchased the Vintage Street lot or planned to build on it in 1939 or 1940, they may have registered using that location even while living temporarily elsewhere.

Enumeration Timing and Mobility:

The 1940 Federal Census official enumeration date was April 1, 1940. Census takers canvassed neighborhoods block by block. If your grandparents were in the middle of moving, traveling, or living in a temporary rental while waiting to build or settle in the San Fernando Valley, they could easily have been missed or recorded in a completely different enumeration district.

Name Variations and Transcription Errors:

Indexing errors in databases like Ancestry or FamilySearch are rampant for uncommon spellings, misread handwriting, or enumerators recording middle names (e.g., recorded under "Morgan Tapley" or with Ethel listed under a maiden name or initial).

Research Strategies to Find Them

To track down where Charles Morgan and Ethel actually were in the spring of 1940, use the following targeted approaches:

1. Broaden the Los Angeles City Directory Search

Instead of relying solely on the census, look for Los Angeles City Directories (Polk's) for the years 1939, 1940, and 1941.

City directories were published annually and often captured residents closer to real-time than the decennial census.

Search for Charles M. Tapley to see if an employer, a different street address, or a phone number is listed for that exact window.

2. Check the 1940 Census via "Locality Only" (No Names)

If name-based indexing has failed due to a bad transcription:

Go directly to the 1940 census enumeration districts for the San Fernando Valley / Sepulveda / Van Nuys areas surrounding Vintage Street.

Manually browse the neighboring pages of the closest existing developed streets from 1940. Because enumerators walked a continuous path, looking at the families listed just before and after the empty acreage can reveal temporary rentals or nearby properties where early Valley pioneers stayed.

3. Cross-Check WWII Draft Cards and Employment Records

WWII Draft Registration Cards: Charles Morgan Tapley likely filled out a draft card in the early 1940s (often referred to as the "Old Man's Registration" for men born in the late 1890s/1900s, or the main 1940/1942 registries). These cards require exact residential addresses and employers at the time of signing, which can clarify where they lived right around the census window.

Employment / City Records: If Charles worked in Los Angeles at the time, check if local trade unions, tax assessment rolls, or county employment records capture his whereabouts in 1940.

4. Investigate Surrounding Counties or States

Sometimes a couple registers to vote in anticipation of a move to California, but delays push the actual relocation back by a year or two. Check neighboring counties (like Ventura, Orange, or San Bernardino) or check if they were still appearing in records from their previous place of residence during the spring of 1940."

    My research plan going forward is to follow Gemini's suggestions as follows:

    (1)  Do a deep dive into the Los Angeles City Directories from that time.  

    (2)  Check the 1940 census by locality.  This is going to take time I did not have before posting this blog today.  

    (3)  Charles's U.S. Draft Card for World War II had a registration date of October 16, 1940.  He used the same address at that time. So this is a dead end.

    According to his Draft Card, he was a self-employed ice delivery man, but he listed his employer as Pure Ice out of Culver City, California.  I am guessing this is where he sourced the ice he sold.  I don't know if I can find anything with this information, but I'll give it a shot. 

    (4)  Since I know they were in Los Angeles at the time and both had been in California for years, I do not need to search other states.  However, I will check that they were not out in San Bernardino at Ethel's parents' house.

    I also asked Gemini about the "miss rate" for Los Angeles and California.  While the miss rate cannot be tracked to a particular city or even state, AI did share the following:

Why Los Angeles Had Unique Factors for a Higher Miss Rate

While a localized statistical percentage for Los Angeles in 1940 does not exist, several historical factors suggest the local miss rate may have met or exceeded the national average:

Explosive Population Growth:

In 1940, Los Angeles and the surrounding San Fernando Valley were undergoing rapid, chaotic growth. Enumerators struggled to keep pace with housing tracts springing up over former agricultural fields, leading to missed households in newly developing or semi-rural pockets.

Transient Populations:

The late 1930s and 1940 saw massive waves of migration to California (including Dust Bowl migrants and defense industry workers). Highly mobile families living in temporary housing, trailers, or transitional rentals were notoriously difficult for door-to-door enumerators to track down.

The Manual Door-to-Door Process:

The 1940 census relied entirely on human foot-canvassing. If a lot had no permanent structure (such as Vintage Street's status as open land at the time), an enumerator looking at a voter registration list might completely bypass the area assuming no residence existed, or miss residents who were temporarily away from a temporary lodging site.